AGP Executive Report

Baltic Air Policing: French Rafale jets shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace from Russia, after Latvia issued shelter warnings in eastern municipalities; the alert was lifted once the UAV was destroyed, with officials pointing to Russian electronic warfare as a likely cause. Lithuanian-US Security: Lithuania confirmed talks with the U.S. on possible nuclear weapons deployment, as regional deterrence planning continues to intensify. EU Politics of Memory: Support is building for a Brussels memorial outside the European Parliament, “An Echo in Time,” featuring letters from victims of 20th-century totalitarian regimes—Lithuania is pushing the project ahead of its 2027 EU Council presidency. Transit & Sanctions Pressure: Latvia ordered higher rail tariffs for cargoes from Russia or via Belarus to Latvia, Estonia and Finland, raising fears of knock-on effects for the Baltic logistics chain—while Lithuania is reportedly not covered. Regional Defence Cooperation: A new 17-nation initiative launched in Singapore to protect critical underwater infrastructure, with Estonia and Lithuania among the participants. Lithuanian Coalition Shake-up: Lithuania’s Social Democrats removed the populist Nemunas Dawn from the governing coalition and opened talks with “For Lithuania,” setting up cabinet changes.

Coalition Shake-Up in Lithuania: Lithuania’s ruling Social Democrats voted to remove the populist Nemunas Dawn from the governing coalition over deep disputes on defense policy, setting up talks with the centre-right “For Lithuania” and likely cabinet changes. Baltic Security & NATO Posture: NATO is stepping up deterrence around Sweden and Finland with new multinational combat arrangements in Finland, while Baltic air policing continues with French Rafales intercepting Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea and Latvia hosted “Baltic Zenith 2026” air-defense drills. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: 11 EU countries, including Lithuania, are pushing the European Commission for tighter Schengen visa rules for Russian citizens, citing rising tourist visas amid the war in Ukraine; Brussels says targeted restrictions are planned for next year. Lithuania in the Wider EU Economy: The European Commission unveiled the 2026 European Semester Spring Package, focusing on resilience, competitiveness, housing, skills and fiscal sustainability. Regional Finance Integration: The EBRD deepened support for a unified pan-Baltic capital market, aiming to remove barriers across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Public Health Policy: New Zealand health groups back a WHO push to ban flavourings in nicotine products, noting Lithuania already moved to restrict flavoured options.

Lithuanian politics: The ruling Social Democrats voted to remove the populist Nemunas Dawn from the coalition after deep clashes over defense policy and amid a court conviction of its leader for antisemitism-related statements; the party says it will seek a replacement with For Lithuania to keep its parliamentary majority. EU visa crackdown: 11 EU countries, including Lithuania, urged the European Commission to tighten Schengen visa rules for Russian citizens, arguing that Russians keep arriving for tourism while Ukraine is under attack; the Commission says it will propose targeted restrictive measures next year as part of a Schengen Visa Code revision. Baltic security in the air: NATO Baltic Air Policing continued with French Rafales scrambling from Šiauliai to intercept six Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea, underscoring day-to-day allied readiness. Regional defense drills: NATO launched “Baltic Zenith 2026” air-defense exercises in Latvia with units from Lithuania, Estonia and others, while Russian forces also ran drills nearby. War spillover: Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian cities including St. Petersburg, with local officials reporting large-scale interceptions and disruptions. Economy & resilience: The EBRD signed a deal to deepen support for a unified pan-Baltic capital market involving Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, aiming for stronger integration and higher global index classification. Social policy: The EU Commission approved Lithuania’s €884m Social Climate Plan to fund energy-efficiency upgrades, social housing and transport/EV support for vulnerable groups.

Lithuanian Coalition Shake-Up: Lithuania’s ruling Social Democrats voted to remove the populist Nemunas Dawn from the coalition after clashes over defense policy and amid a court conviction of Nemunas Dawn leader Remigijus Zemaitaitis for incitement to hatred against Jews; the party now seeks to keep its parliamentary majority by turning to For Lithuania. Defense & NATO Air Policing: French Rafale jets scrambled from Šiauliai intercepted six Russian aircraft over the Baltic, escorting Su-35, Su-34, Su-24, Il-76 and reconnaissance planes as NATO continues daily air policing. EU Schengen Visa Pressure on Russians: The European Commission says it will propose targeted, tighter Schengen visa measures for Russian citizens next year, responding to a push from 11 countries including Lithuania over security risks from Russian tourism. Lithuania’s Social Climate Plan: Brussels approved Lithuania’s €884m Social Climate Plan to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises with home renovations, energy advice hubs, and transport upgrades including thousands of EVs. US Nuclear Sharing Talks: Lithuania confirms dialogue with the U.S. on possible nuclear weapons deployment and expanded nuclear sharing in Europe. EU Pay Transparency Deadline Watch: A new EU-wide snapshot shows many states are missing the pay transparency directive deadline, with Lithuania listed among those that have implemented it.

EU Visa Tightening for Russians: Eleven EU states, including Lithuania, urged the European Commission to introduce tougher, binding Schengen visa restrictions for Russian nationals after complaints about rising Russian tourist travel during the war. EU Migration Push: The Commission backed new rules to speed deportations, including “return hubs” in third countries, as member states struggle with rejected asylum seekers. Lithuania’s Clean Transition Funding: The European Commission approved Lithuania’s €884m Social Climate Plan to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises with home renovations, energy advice hubs, and transport upgrades, including thousands of EVs and bike lanes. US–Lithuania Deterrence Update: Lithuania’s defence leadership said the future rotation and scale of US troops remain sensitive, with a clearer picture expected in the coming weeks. NATO Drone Spillover: NATO allies are dealing with drones straying into alliance territory more often as Russia and Ukraine use electronic warfare, raising new risks for eastern flank states. Lithuanian Economy Snapshot: Eurostat reported euro area GDP shrank in Q1 2026 (-0.2%), with Lithuania down (-0.3%) amid broader EU weakness. Lithuanian Culture & Tourism: Five Lithuanian restaurants earned Michelin stars in the new guide, highlighting the country’s growing hospitality push.

Lithuania–US Deterrence Talks: Lithuania has started discussions with the United States on possible deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons, with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas stressing any move would only be considered in a crisis or war, while the constitutional ban remains the main legal hurdle. US Troop Rotation Clarity: Kaunas says the next rotation of U.S. troops is still sensitive, but the Homeland Union’s chairman argues Lithuania should get a clearer picture within weeks. EU Security & Sanctions: The European Commission is set to tighten visa rules for Russian nationals next January, responding to complaints from Schengen states including Lithuania over uneven implementation. Schengen Border Politics: Germany rejected EU pressure to scrap internal border checks, arguing they work against illegal migration. Critical Infrastructure Protection: Seventeen countries launched GUIDE, a new framework to defend undersea telecom and energy cables, with Lithuania among the participants. Economic Security: At the Brussels Economic Security Forum, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič promised a new instrument to help firms diversify suppliers and cut reliance on China. Energy Grid Cybersecurity: Lithuania’s grid operators can now disconnect solar plants that don’t meet cybersecurity requirements, tightening rules first announced in 2024. Ukraine Peace Diplomacy: Ukraine’s president urged direct talks with Vladimir Putin, while a Lithuanian Catholic nuncio backed peace initiatives after Zelenskyy’s open letter. Local Spotlight: Five Lithuanian restaurants earned Michelin stars in the new Lithuania guide.

US–Lithuania Nuclear Talks: Lithuania is in discussions with the United States about possible expanded nuclear sharing/hosting, with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas saying the country is “not standing on the sidelines,” as NATO nuclear roles and any future US posture in Europe remain under debate. Baltic Air Policing: French Rafale jets intercepted multiple Russian aircraft over the Baltic in NATO Baltic Air Policing, including flights without flight plans or radio contact, with officials calling it above-normal activity and provocations. Parliament & Ukraine Claims: The Seimas ratified a Hague convention establishing a Ukraine claims commission to assess and decide compensation for damage caused by Russia’s violations of international law. Foreign Ministry Politics: In the Government Hour, Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys faced internal party chatter about possible replacement, but Ruginienė publicly backed him and said he is doing a good job. Security & Drones: Lithuania is also moving to adapt balloon interception systems for drone defence and is considering a dedicated military unit for drone warfare as the region grapples with persistent drone threats. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: Lithuania joined a coalition pushing the EU for tougher tourist visa rules for Russian nationals ahead of the summer season. Ukraine War Volunteers: A Lithuanian volunteer fighter was reported missing in Ukraine after a mission, with family informed.

Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Lithuania signals it’s in talks with the U.S. about possible hosting of nuclear weapons, as NATO nuclear-sharing debates return to the spotlight amid concerns over future U.S. presence. Baltic Air Policing: NATO scrambled fighters after intercepting six Russian aircraft over the Baltic, with France reporting unusually frequent “provocations” tied to the air policing mission protecting Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: Sweden and a coalition including Lithuania are pushing the EU for tighter, more binding rules to deny Russian tourist visas, arguing “shopping weekends” undermine solidarity while Ukrainians fight and die. Lithuania-Russia Legal Row: Russia protested Lithuania’s plans to remove Soviet military burial sites, escalating a dispute that also feeds broader “legal warfare” claims. Security Cooperation: Ukraine says it will send counter-drone experts to Baltic states, while Lithuania and Ukraine expand defence innovation cooperation. EV Infrastructure: The European Investment Bank is partnering with Ireland to speed EV charging rollouts—an EU policy signal that could shape regional infrastructure priorities. Local Law Enforcement: Northern Ireland police arrested a woman wanted in Lithuania for serious child sex offences, found hiding in a wardrobe in Coalisland.

NATO & Baltic Security: NATO launched the scaled-down BALTOPS 26 naval exercise in the Baltic Sea near Russia’s borders, running to June 19 with about 20 ships and 6,000 troops from 16 countries including Lithuania. Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Poland and Lithuania confirmed early discussions on their potential role in NATO nuclear deterrence built around U.S. weapons in Europe, with Lithuania saying it is “not standing on the sidelines.” U.S. Troop Rotation Uncertainty: Lithuania’s defense minister says the next U.S. troop rotation is under review after about 1,000 U.S. soldiers began redeployment, leaving the country without a substantial American contingent for the first time in years. Shelter Readiness Scrutiny: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed gaps in shelter access, with residents reporting locked or hard-to-reach underground shelters. Ukraine Drone Support: Zelensky said Ukraine will send counter-drone experts to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania to share experience and interceptor know-how. Cross-border Justice: A 23-year-old woman wanted in Lithuania for serious child sexual offences was arrested in Northern Ireland after being found hiding in a wardrobe and is set to face an extradition court. EU Visa Pressure on Russians: 11 EU and partner countries, including Lithuania, urged the European Commission to tighten Schengen visa rules for Russians, citing high tourist visa numbers amid the war in Ukraine.

Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Lithuania says it’s in discussions with the US about hosting American nuclear weapons, while President Nausėda has floated amending the constitution to allow it—amid reports Washington may expand NATO nuclear sharing eastward. Parliament & Coalition Politics: Media reports suggest the LSDP council may consider replacing Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, after questions over whether his foreign-policy line fully matches government guidance. Shelter Readiness: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed “blind spots” in public air-raid shelter access, with residents finding shelters locked and poorly maintained. US Troop Rotation: About 1,000 US soldiers have begun redeploying from Lithuania; the next rotation is “under review,” leaving uncertainty over future American presence. Drone Counter-Training: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will send drone countermeasure instructors to Lithuania and other Baltic states. Cross-Border Policing: UK police arrested a woman wanted by Lithuania for serious child sex offences, found hiding in a wardrobe under a Lithuanian extradition warrant. Migration Trend: Lithuania reports the number of returnees has nearly doubled compared with last year, with many settling in major cities.

U.S.-Lithuania Defence Update: More than 1,000 U.S. service members and equipment have started withdrawing from Lithuania after a rotational deployment, while the next rotation’s timing and size remain “under review,” with Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas saying Vilnius has assurances the presence will continue but details are still unclear. Shelter Readiness: A drone alert in Vilnius exposed “blind spots” in Lithuania’s shelter access, with residents reporting locked underground shelters and poor upkeep just as the region faces spillover risks from the Ukraine war. NATO Parliamentary Push: NATO PA lawmakers meeting in Vilnius adopted a declaration urging parliaments to help turn defence pledges into “combat-ready” capabilities ahead of the Ankara summit, including accelerating delivery timelines for the 5% GDP goal. EU Defence Finance (SAFE): The EU’s €150bn SAFE rearmament borrowing plan is drawing pushback, with disputes over how much member states must spend and how procurement rules will work in practice. Ukraine-Lithuania Tech Cooperation: Ukraine and Lithuania signed a letter of intent for “Brave Lithuania,” a joint grant program to fund defence innovation, especially unmanned systems and electronic warfare. Inflation Watch: Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, with energy and services driving pressure and strengthening expectations for ECB rate action.

US Troops in Lithuania: Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas says the next U.S. rotation is “under review,” with the current contingent leaving as scheduled and a replacement not yet confirmed—raising the prospect Lithuania could be without a permanently rotating U.S. armored battalion for the first time since 2020. Ukraine–Lithuania Defence Innovation: Vilnius and Kyiv signed a letter of intent to launch “Brave Lithuania,” a joint grant program for defence tech startups, targeting drones, electronic warfare, AI, and communications, with NATO-Ukraine Defence Innovators Forum backing. NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Vilnius: Lawmakers discussed collective defence, hybrid threats, and faster support for Ukraine, adopting a joint declaration warning Russia remains a long-term threat. EU Pay Transparency: From June 7, EU rules require employers to share pay ranges and respond to pay inquiries, with Lithuania among the early adopters. EU–Armenia Visa Liberalisation: The EU will fund €2.2m for Armenia’s visa liberalisation reforms, implemented in partnership with Lithuania. Eurozone Inflation: May inflation rose to 3.2% as energy prices climbed, keeping pressure on households and businesses. Vilnius Pink Soup Fest: Tens of thousands packed the capital for the Pink Soup Fest, turning saltibarsciai into a major summer tourism draw.

Russia-Lithuania Diplomatic Row: Moscow summoned Lithuania’s chargé d’affaires over the exhumation of Soviet soldiers’ graves in Vievis, calling it “desecration” and warning of criminal liability. NATO Deterrence & Drone Response: NATO’s deputy secretary general Radmila Shekerinska urged faster defence investment and innovation as Lithuania hosts NATO Parliamentary Assembly events; separately, the US and UK ran joint counter-drone exercises near the Belarus border. EU Defence Industry Push: EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius called for a stronger European pillar inside NATO and a more unified defence market, while SAFE loan talks continue as some states weigh bigger or second allocations. Brave Lithuania Programme: Lithuania and Ukraine launched “Brave Lithuania” to speed up defence-tech development, focusing on unmanned systems, electronic warfare, AI, and battlefield communications, with SAFE financing in the mix. Energy Policy: Lithuania’s gas transmission service prices for 2027 were cut by 15.8% after regulator-approved tariff changes. Regional Security Context: UN officials warned of rising drone and missile spillover risks in the region, with Baltic states repeatedly reporting incursions.

Lithuania-Ukraine Defense Tech Push: Lithuania and Ukraine launched “Brave Lithuania,” a joint defence innovation programme to speed up unmanned systems, electronic warfare, AI, and battlefield communications, with Ukraine ready to send experts and both sides pointing to SAFE financing for joint projects. Drone-Airspace Row: Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė again rejected Russian claims that Baltic airspace was used for drone strikes, saying it’s disinformation and stressing Russia is responsible for any threats to the region; the dispute follows Kaliningrad’s first reported drone-related alert and flight restrictions. NATO Parliamentary Momentum in Vilnius: President Gitanas Nausėda told NATO PA lawmakers Lithuania must act with unity as security rules are under pressure, while NATO PA adopted a declaration backing stronger deterrence and defence. Air Defence & Drone Unit: Lithuania plans a dedicated drone-warfare formation (ANBO) to centralize unmanned aviation capabilities and accelerate operator training. Energy Policy: Lithuania approved 2027 gas transmission service prices that fall 15.8%, and Ukraine agreed long-term LNG supplies via the Klaipėda terminal to strengthen resilience. SAFE Defence Loans: The EU Commission said a second SAFE allocation could be possible if Italy cuts its planned defence-loan request, with Lithuania among countries already signed up.

Baltic Security & Airspace: Lithuania and the region are bracing for more drone-related pressure as Zelensky says Ukraine tries to intercept all Russian drones headed toward partner countries, while experts debate whether rising Baltic incursions are caused by rerouting, GPS disruption, or deliberate interference. Legal Escalation: Russia says it is preparing a UN International Court of Justice case against Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia over alleged discrimination against Russian speakers, framing it as a refusal to negotiate. Deterrence & Kaliningrad: Putin warns NATO Baltic states that any territory threatening Russia—including Kaliningrad—could be treated as a legitimate target, ratcheting up tensions after Lithuanian NATO-related comments. Local Governance & Oversight: Estonia launches administrative supervision into the Artists’ Association after a €700,000 theft via a telephone scam, focusing on grant use and internal controls. Lithuania’s Nuclear Safety: An IAEA review praises Lithuania’s nuclear and radiation safety system as “robust and mature,” with recommendations aimed at further strengthening oversight and public communication. NATO Parliamentary Assembly: Lawmakers stress faster defence innovation, protection of critical infrastructure, and scaling technologies, citing Ukraine’s wartime lessons.

NATO in Vilnius: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly urged faster, sustained support for Ukraine and pushed lawmakers to help speed collective defence, protect critical infrastructure and counter hybrid threats ahead of the July summit. Lithuania’s nuclear oversight: An IAEA review praised Lithuania’s “robust and mature” nuclear and radiation safety system, highlighting continued efforts to strengthen regulation and public communication as Ignalina is decommissioned. Baltic security tensions: Putin warned NATO states that any territory seen as threatening Russia—including around Kaliningrad—could become a “legitimate target,” while Lithuania’s defence leadership warns Russia’s war-driven economy may look next to the Baltics. Russian-speaker dispute at UN court: Russia says it will take Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the UN’s top court over alleged crackdowns on Russian-speaking residents. Underwater infrastructure security: Lithuania joined a new multi-country framework (GUIDE) to improve defence cooperation for critical underwater cables and energy/telecom networks. Public transport affordability: Lithuania’s temporary train-fare cut is highlighted as Europe debates how to ease the fuel-price squeeze without long-term fiscal damage.