AGP Executive Report

Nuclear Policy Shake-Up: President Gitanas Nausėda says Lithuania and parliamentary parties agree to scrap the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons, arguing the “geopolitical situation is getting worse” and that Lithuania risks being a “grey zone” in NATO deterrence; Cabinet Pipeline: Nausėda has floated ministerial candidates, including deputy foreign minister Taurimas Valys for finance, MP Martynas Katelynas for interior, and Ieva Andriulaitytė for environment; Air Defence Readiness: Defence minister Robertas Kaunas says soldiers must be trained before more interceptor drones are bought, pointing to recent drone incursions and improved detection with added radars; Maritime Security & Innovation: France’s Naval Group will set up a Shield Lab maritime defence innovation hub in Lithuania with local research partners; Ukraine Tech Cooperation: Kyiv approved a faster export framework for defence technology, with Lithuania named among partners under the “Drone Deal” track; Court Case Watch: Lithuania’s Court of Appeal allowed ex-Snoras shareholder Vladimir Antonov to start serving a 10-year-and-six-month sentence immediately while appeals continue; Regional Security Context: IISS assesses Russia ran a drone campaign over Europe, with shadow-fleet vessels used as launch/recovery platforms, including incidents affecting Vilnius airports.

Nuclear Policy Shift: Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda says parliamentary parties agreed on a plan to remove the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons on Lithuanian soil, stressing there are no plans to store such weapons now but the change would keep options open as security conditions worsen. EU Politics & Ukraine: Ireland officially kicked off its EU Council presidency in Dublin, with leaders flagging Ukraine accession momentum and the next long-term EU budget as top priorities; Zelenskyy used the opening to push tougher EU steps against Russian-linked companies and shadow fleets. Baltic Security & NATO: Latvia’s finance minister warned Rail Baltica can’t be abandoned and must be restructured for clarity on what gets built, while NATO command changes put Latvia and Estonia’s land forces under the 1st German-Dutch Corps, with the Suwałki Corridor in focus. Lithuanian Domestic Politics: Lithuania’s PM-designate Mindaugas Sinkevičius is weighing ministerial appointments, as a new centre-right political party led by Ignas Vėgėlė prepares for an autumn founding convention. Economy & Society: Eurostat data show Lithuania among EU leaders in renewables electricity share, while eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% in June and Lithuania is estimated at 5.5%—the highest in the bloc.

Lithuanian Politics & Governance: Lithuania’s parliament approved Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevičius as prime minister, setting up a new government and a fast-moving ministerial lineup as he weighs key posts. China Relations: Acting Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys briefed lawmakers on efforts to normalize ties with Beijing, with committee chair Motuzas saying China is now willing to meet and negotiate on equal footing. Land & Integrity Watch: An LRT investigation links Jonava land transfers and sales to Prime Minister-designate Sinkevičius, raising questions about how state land was managed and later sold. Security & NATO: NATO command changes place Estonia and Latvia under the German-Dutch corps, while Lithuania remains under Multinational Corps Northeast—part of a broader eastern-flank readiness push. EU & Ukraine: Ireland formally starts its EU Council presidency, with Zelenskiy using the Dublin event to call out Russian-owned firms in Europe and push tougher sanctions. Economy & Society: A ministry report says 1 in 6 Lithuanians is starting a business, while eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June (Lithuania estimated at 5.5%). Defense Tech: RSI Europe launched a Drone Repeater Kit used with Ukrainian FPV units, aiming to extend drone control and video links in EW-contested terrain.

Lithuanian Government Leadership: President Gitanas Nausėda appointed Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevičius as prime minister after the Seimas approved him (80 votes for, 2 against, 28 abstained), setting up a new cabinet and government programme within 15 days. NATO Eastern Flank: The Netherlands extended its troops in Lithuania’s NATO battle group until Dec 31, 2028, while NATO is also reorganising command for faster Baltic response as US support for Baltic defence is reaffirmed ahead of the Ankara summit. Security & Hybrid Threats: Lithuania’s border posture remains under pressure as officials warn about sabotage risks and the growing normalization of foreign drones near European airports and military sites. Legal Accountability: The Constitutional Court is set to consider a petition by the Hind Rajab Foundation after Lithuania rejected its request to investigate an Israeli dental student in Kaunas over alleged Gaza war crimes. Energy/Transport Reality Check: Rail Baltica’s 2030 completion is called “mathematically impossible” by Latvia’s PM, highlighting political friction over timelines and funding. Domestic Politics Watch: A new snapshot of lawmakers’ wealth shows several MPs with assets above EUR 1m, including Nemunas Dawn’s Dainoras Bradauskas as the richest. Ukraine War Spillover: Pro-Ukrainian residents in Crimea say strikes are reviving hopes of deoccupation, while Ukraine’s push for more military aid continues ahead of NATO talks.

Lithuanian Government Reset: The Seimas approved Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevičius as prime minister (80-2, 28 abstentions), after the coalition reshuffle that followed Inga Ruginienė’s resignation; Sinkevičius now has 15 days to present his cabinet and programme. Baltic Deterrence Upgrade: NATO is creating a second command zone for the Baltic region; the US signalled continued support as Gen. Chris Donahue spoke in Valga, while the German–Dutch Corps took tactical command for Estonia and Latvia, shifting the previous HQ focus toward Poland and Lithuania. Russian Hybrid Pressure at Sea: Estonia released images of machine guns and sandbags mounted on a Russian-flagged LNG carrier in the Baltic, underscoring Moscow’s push to deter inspections and boarding. EU Sanctions and Security: The EU is debating a visa ban on Russian military personnel as part of a new sanctions package, but unanimity and legal concerns are slowing adoption. HRF vs Lithuania Courts: The Hind Rajab Foundation petitioned Lithuania’s Constitutional Court after authorities refused to investigate an Israeli dental student over alleged Gaza war crimes. Defense Industry Watch: Lithuania’s BROLIS ordered ~17,000 night-vision intensifier tubes via Exosens for Czech Armed Forces, highlighting NATO-linked supply chains. Local Politics & Wealth: A separate report lists Lithuania’s richest MPs, with assets topping EUR 3.36m. Public Health: Latvia reported salmonella cases linked to “Reeva” instant noodles consumed dry, with Lithuania among affected countries.

Lithuanian Government Reset: The Seimas approved Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevicius as the new prime minister, after the outgoing cabinet resigned and President Gitanas Nauseda submitted the nomination following the largest party’s recommendation. Eastern Flank Deterrence: NATO is adding a second command zone for the Baltics, with US General Chris Donahue saying Washington will back deterrence “with boots in the mud,” as Russia’s potential large-scale assault risk is discussed. Defense Readiness in Practice: Lithuania is strengthening its defenses amid sabotage concerns, while NATO’s “Freedom Shield I” exercise shows how fast, drone-heavy warfare is being rehearsed. Rail Baltica Funding Crunch: The Baltics face roughly a €10bn gap to finish Rail Baltica’s first phase, with EU support after 2028 uncertain and redesign debates raising the time-versus-cost dilemma. Regional Security Signals: Estonia and others report Russia militarising LNG shipping with heavy machine guns, while Latvia plans a joint drone factory with Ukraine near the Russian border. Legal Accountability at Home: Lithuania’s Constitutional Court complaint challenges the refusal to investigate alleged Israeli war crimes by an Israeli soldier, pushing the issue of impunity and jurisdiction into domestic law.

Snoras Case in Court: Former Snoras co-owner Vladimir Antonov was brought to court in Lithuania after being extradited from France, and he asked to start serving his 10.5-year sentence immediately; the court still has to decide whether he can begin without waiting for the ruling, while another defendant, Raimondas Baranauskas, is being tried in absentia as he is believed to be in Russia. Lithuanian Security Watch: Lithuania’s defence ministry says there are no signs Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on the Baltics, but the sabotage threat against critical infrastructure in Lithuania remains high, echoing wider NATO concerns about hybrid provocations. LVŽS Meets President: LVŽS leader met the Lithuanian president after coalition reshuffles, with the party signaling no immediate plans to replace ministers appointed by LVŽS, while questions around a data leak at the Centre of Registers were left largely unanswered. NATO Deterrence Training: Germany’s 45th Armoured Brigade “Lithuania” is running major drills with Lithuanian forces, with German Defence Minister Pistorius framing the exercise as preparation for faster, more transparent “wars of today and tomorrow.” Ukraine–Belarus Drone Pressure: Belarus warned it will respond with “full available capabilities” to any border violations as Ukraine raises concerns about growing military infrastructure near the frontier. Defence Innovation Link: Ukraine launched “Brave International,” a unified framework for joint defence technology grant competitions with partners including Lithuania, with the first programmes exceeding €100m.

Baltic Security Talks: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda met with Polish and Baltic leaders in Poland to coordinate European security priorities, including defence, energy security and critical infrastructure ahead of the Ankara NATO summit. Russia Threat Assessment: Lithuania’s defence ministry says there are no signs Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on the Baltics, but warns sabotage risks against Lithuania’s critical infrastructure remain high. NATO Command Shift: From July 1, Latvia and Estonia’s land forces will come under NATO’s 1st German/Netherlands Corps, while the outgoing command refocuses on Poland and Lithuania, including the Suwałki Corridor. EU Sanctions Pressure: Baltic lawmakers condemned China’s “ethnic assimilation” law, urging Europe-wide action as the policy takes effect July 1. Ukraine-Lithuania Diplomacy: Lithuania’s president offered to mediate a diplomatic dispute between Ukraine and Poland, as tensions continue to shape regional security planning. Humanitarian Response: Lithuania is preparing for a possible relief mission to earthquake-hit Venezuela, where international rescue teams are searching for survivors as the death toll climbs.

Lithuania–Ukraine Cooperation: Lithuania and Ukraine signed a joint declaration to deepen municipal partnership, with a new partnership program for towns and practical support in EU project management, procurement, energy efficiency and services for war-affected communities. NATO Eastern Flank: Latvia and Estonia will shift under NATO’s 1st German/Netherlands Corps from July 1, while the outgoing structure refocuses on Poland and Lithuania, including protection of the Suwałki Corridor. Brave International Defense Innovation: Lithuania’s government approved unified Brave International rules, launching joint defense tech competitions worth over €100 million, with mandatory testing in Ukraine via the Test in Ukraine platform. Presidential Diplomacy: President Gitanas Nausėda met with counterparts from Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Romania in Jurata to align positions for the NATO summit in Ankara, including eastern flank security and regional energy/transport priorities. Regional Security Warnings: Baltic and NATO officials warned of possible Russian hybrid provocations aimed at Poland or the Baltics to test alliance unity and pressure support for Ukraine. Lithuanian Politics: Lithuania’s president accepted the resignation of PM Inga Ruginienė’s government, setting up a coalition-driven leadership reset.

Ukraine-Lithuania Ties: Lithuania and Ukraine signed a joint declaration to deepen municipal cooperation, with a new partnership program for city-to-city exchange and practical projects in areas like energy efficiency and support for war-affected communities. Ukraine Recovery & Defense Innovation: At URC2026 in Gdańsk, Ukraine secured 160 agreements worth over €10 billion, including major energy funding, while the government approved “Brave International” to set unified rules for defense-tech cooperation and joint grant competitions with partner countries. Presidential Diplomacy: President Gitanas Nausėda said he is ready to mediate the Ukraine–Poland diplomatic dispute if both sides request it, with plans to meet Poland’s president in northern Poland. Baltic Energy Push: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to speed up a full ban on Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining dependence still helps finance Russia’s war. Lithuania in the Spotlight: Lithuania was also listed among countries contributing to international rescue teams for Venezuela’s earthquake response, underscoring the country’s role in global crisis support.

Lithuanian diplomacy: President Gitanas Nausėda says he’s ready to mediate the Ukraine–Poland diplomatic dispute, but only if both sides ask for it; he plans an informal trip to northern Poland to meet President Karol Nawrocki and discuss possible normalization. EU energy push: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to speed up plans for a full ban on Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining Russian revenues still help fund the war; the bloc’s oil-ban talks have been stalled amid wider energy concerns. Ukraine recovery & defense innovation: At URC 2026 in Gdańsk, Ukraine signed 160 agreements worth over €10bn, while partners pledged €550m for winter energy preparations; Ukraine also launched “Brave International” to set unified rules for joint defense-innovation grants with partner countries, with a budget above €100m. Regional security backdrop: Reports warn Russia could test NATO cohesion with hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland as Ukraine hits deeper into Russia. Humanitarian spillover: Lithuania is preparing for a possible relief mission to earthquake-hit Venezuela as the death toll rises above 1,400 and rescue teams from dozens of countries continue searching.

Energy Security: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the European Commission to speed up proposals for a full, phased abandonment of Russian oil imports, arguing the Strait of Hormuz risk has eased and oil revenues still help fund Russia’s war; they warn Hungary and Slovakia may resist. Diplomacy: President Gitanas Nausėda said Lithuania is ready to mediate between Ukraine and Poland if both sides ask, and plans to meet Poland’s president in the coming days to discuss the dispute. Eastern Flank Deterrence: NATO allies are testing new ways to share information faster, with a Lithuania-linked hackathon milestone aimed at strengthening deterrence and countering Russian advantages. Security Warning: The Guardian reports growing intelligence that Russia could stage hybrid provocations or limited missile/drone attacks against the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO unity as Ukraine strikes deepen. EU Politics: The Commission is reportedly preparing a “membership-lite” approach—financial and market benefits for candidate countries while full accession drags on. Local Response: Lithuania is preparing possible relief for quake-hit Venezuela, readying EMT specialists and humanitarian supplies if the US requests support.

Lithuanian Politics & Diplomacy: Šimonytė hit back at coalition handling of Foreign Minister Budrys’ China dispute, saying the government risks humiliating Lithuania and gaining nothing either way. Government Formation: President Nausėda nominated Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevičius as Lithuania’s next prime minister after the coalition reshuffle. Security Watch: Latvia and other NATO sources warn Russia may stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland to test alliance cohesion as Ukraine strikes deepen. NATO Readiness: A NATO-US hackathon in Wiesbaden tested a new data-sharing system, with Lithuania among the first to access it for Eastern Flank deterrence. EU Energy Policy: EU ministers agreed the Council’s negotiating position on the “grids” package, aiming to speed permitting and expand cross-border infrastructure, while Italy and 11 states push to delay methane-import obligations. Ukraine Support: Lithuania is preparing a possible relief mission to quake-hit Venezuela, and separately pledged €4M for solar panels and storage in Ukrainian schools and hospitals. EU Enlargement: The Commission is drafting “membership-lite” economic benefits for candidate countries to keep reforms moving while full accession drags on.

NATO Eastern Flank Alert: Latvia and another NATO member say Russia may be preparing a “provocation” against the Baltic states or Poland to test Western unity, with officials warning it would likely fall short of a full-scale attack but could involve hybrid actions like missiles and drones. Eastern Flank Summit in Gdańsk: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda urged closer coordination and stronger US ties as they warn of escalation in coming weeks, while also pushing for more defense investment. Local Defence Readiness: Poland, Lithuania and France are running large exercises near the Suwałki Gap, including tests of unmanned ground robots for reconnaissance and evacuation. Lithuania’s Government Shift: President Nausėda submitted Mindaugas Sinkevicius’s PM nomination to Seimas after coalition talks, with a stated focus on security spending, Ukraine support, energy independence and transparency. EU Defence Funding: Lithuania received its first €956.3m SAFE payment to speed up joint EU defense procurement. Ukraine Energy Support: Lithuania will allocate €4m for solar panels and energy storage at Ukrainian schools and hospitals under a URC2026 joint declaration. EU Enlargement Plan: The Commission is preparing a “gradual integration” model that could give Moldova and other candidates economic advantages before full accession. Georgia vs Europe: Georgian Dream figures, including parliament speaker Shalva Papuashvili, attacked EU and PACE resolutions as violations of sovereignty.

Government Change in Vilnius: President Gitanas Nausėda submitted Social Democrat Mindaugas Sinkevičius’ PM nomination to the Seimas after the coalition reshuffle that ended the previous government and followed Inga Ruginienė’s resignation. The Seimas is set to vote Tuesday, with Nausėda stressing defence spending, demographic policy, regional development, energy independence, transparency, and preparations for Lithuania’s EU Council presidency. EU Defence Financing: Lithuania received its first €956.3m SAFE payment (15% of a €6.4bn allocation) to speed joint ammunition, missile, air-defence and ground-combat procurement under the EU’s ReArm Europe plan. Eastern Flank Security Push: Eastern-border states including Lithuania urged the EU and NATO to activate “Eastern Flank Watch” without delay, warning of drone-driven escalation and calling for major funding. Belarus Border Airspace: Lithuania extended airspace restrictions along the Belarus border until Jan. 1, 2027, citing balloon incursions and drone incidents. Ukraine Recovery & Energy Aid: At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdansk, Lithuania-linked initiatives featured prominently: a Ukraine Transport Support Fund was agreed with initial contributions (including Lithuania), and an “Energy Ramstein” package secured at least €375m for Ukraine’s power infrastructure, with Lithuania pledging €4m. Defence Industry Cooperation: Patria and Lithuania’s KOVO Armor signed an MoU tied to Lithuania’s planned Patria 6×6 procurement, aiming at technology transfer and local industrial capacity. Legal Reform in the EU: A new EU directive on child sexual abuse extends the deadline for victims to file complaints until age 50 across member states, including Lithuania.

Lithuanian politics shake-up: Lithuania’s government resigned after a coalition reshuffle, setting up President Gitanas Nausėda to submit a new PM candidate to the Seimas; analysts say the next cabinet is unlikely to soften its hard line on Russia, while it may test openings toward Belarus and China. Ukraine recovery diplomacy: The Ukraine Recovery Conference opened in Gdańsk without President Volodymyr Zelensky amid a Kyiv–Warsaw dispute, while partners announced new energy support—Ukraine secured at least €375m for its energy sector, with Lithuania pledging €4m. EU justice update: A new EU directive raises penalties and extends the deadline for victims of child sexual abuse to file complaints until age 50, a major change for countries with shorter limitation periods, including Lithuania. Security and Belarus pressure: UN reporting highlights a crackdown on Belarusians supporting Ukraine, while warnings grow that Russia may seek ways to conscript Belarusian citizens. Energy market warning: A new analysis argues Europe’s energy security risk is rising as oil prices fall, because the true cost of importing through contested chokepoints fades from planning. Local loss: Lithuanian volunteer Ignas Kailius was killed in Ukraine, according to Memorial and Lithuanian media.